University of Barcelona Database of Sociological Research

Net Code IBV-360-89271-d
Rel Date 2090/05/11 23:30:24

THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES AND
THE NON-INDUSTRIALISED NATIONS
SUMMARY FOR GENERAL RELEASE

Summary of findings of the Odessa/Glasgow Conference on World Development, sponsored by the University of Barcelona, the International Council on Foreign Aid, the Swiss National Endowment for Sociological Research, the Soviet Academy of Sciences, and the World Bank. Full proceedings and citations indexed IBB8648i-08654862

Principal compilers:
     Maria Alleakwit-kanchl, U of Norway (IS-193-252-t)
     Serve Hampartzoumian, Chita Public Welfare Office (USR-356-99443-sr9)
     Katerina Sorjenson, U of Barcelona (NV-777-394)

TEXT BEGINS

     It is generally agreed that within the next decade, the people of the EC must formulate a coherent plan to deal with the vast indigent population living outside the industrialized nations of Europe and North Africa. To analyze the ramifications of this decision, the Odessa/Glasgow Conference on World Development was constituted to bring together research and theories on the political and economic future of the Earth.

     In summary, the conference foresees two possible futures for the world, generally termed the Interventionist Approach and the Laissez-Faire Approach. These scenarios actually represent two extreme views, between which lies an infinite range of possibilities. Nevertheless, they point out the advantages and disadvantages which may accrue from either choice.

     The Interventionist Approach postulates that the EC should immediately embark on a massive program to re-industrialize the rest of the world up to EC standards within 30 to 50 years. This program requires that 10 to 15% of the Gross Domestic Product of the major EC nations be diverted toward foreign economic aid, mainly toward the development and construction of desalinisation plants, fusion plants, housing, factories, aquacities, medical facilities, schools, sewers, communication and power lines, computer facilities, roads, ports, and maglev rails; in other words, the entire infrastructure of a modern society. Barring any major breakthroughs in industrial engineering or power production, this plan would preclude most major internal EC development, including any major efforts in space and sea-bed exploitation, and would bring economic growth rates down to the minimum necessary for a stable society (as determined by the Weiss-Pyotr Calculations).

     A far greater impact would be caused by the necessity to send at least 7.5 million teachers, technicians, and specialists to underdeveloped nations resulting in a critical shortage of highly trained personnel within the EC, dramatically slowing down research in all applied sciences. Whether this number of specialists could be convinced to even temporarily leave the comforts of modern European life is questionable. Most conference members agreed that economic incentives would not be insufficient, that society would need a strong cultural imperative to achieve such a goal, a cultural force which most observers agree does not currently exist.

     The Interventionist Approach also has serious political ramifications. In order to achieve such rapid change, the EC would be compelled to use force to ensure compliance among many peoples. Researchers disagreed greatly on the amount of military intervention which would be necessary. Estimates ranged from small police forces totally 2 to 3 million, much of this total drawn from locals, to major EC military occupation forces covering half the globe, an estimated commitment equal to today's entire Soviet military force.

     While many agree that the Interventionist Approach would be best for the world in the long-run, it is doubtful that it would be best for Europe. Besides the economic, intellectual, and military reductions mentioned above, massive change on this scale will invariably create social psychoses in many of the newly developed nations. Rapid, enforced industrialisation would almost completely destroy the cultural systems now present in these societies. According to the Mirsky Theory of Cultural Hierarchies, such swift transformations would bring about a cultural mentality similar to an inferiority complex, they typical symptom of which is a fanatic and aggressive insistence on assumed superiority. Examples in recent history include early 20th century Japan, late 20th century Islam, and modern Kazakhstan. Most sociologists believe that these historical examples would be mild compared to the level of belligerence which the Interventionist Approach would generate. There would be a drastic increase in international hostilities and outright wars, the natural target of most of these being the EC itself. The EC could find itself under economic or even direct military attack by the nations it built using the tools the EC gave them.

     It is directly because of the Mirsky Theory that some sociologists suggest the Laissez-Faire Approach. According to this plan, the EC would send only minimal assistance to the undeveloped world, mostly offering guidance and the informational resources of the EC with little transfer of material resources or personnel except through normal trade and/or immigration. This would allow development to occur at a slow but steady pace, taking an estimated 60-120 years depending on the region involved. Cultures would have time to evolve at a much more natural pace, incorporating new concepts and technologies into their lives under their own control. Given knowledge of modern economic, political and social theorty, many of the problems faced by developing nations of the 20th and 21st centuries could be alleviated to some extent.

     From a social and political standpoint, the Laissez-Faire Approach appears ideal. Its drawbacks lie in the environmental and demographic effects. For much of the developmental period, the 2 thousand million plus inhabitants of these nations would be dependent on non-renewable energy sources to start up their industries, most likely wood and fossil fuels. Given the present fragility of the global ecosystem, it is likely that this could restart global warming. Water pollution, deforestation, and toxic wastes would once again be crucial problems in much of the world. Already depleted resources would be virtually eliminated.

     Possibly even worse than the short-term environmental effects caused by industrialisation would be the well-known phenomenon ofcatastrophic population increase, a stage all industrialising nations pass through. Within the Laissez-Faire Approach, this period could extend over several generations in many regions. While most ecologists agree that with today's technology the maximum ideal global population for humans is approximately 2 thousand million (a figure we have already exceeded), even the most conservative estimates of the effect of the Laissez-Faire Approach forecase a world population of 8 thousand million by the year 2200 CE, while a number of demographers predict as much as 14 thousand million. The possibility that the Earth's biosphere could support that number of people in an industrialised society is in serious doubt.

     As was mentioned above, these two theories are only the most extreme possibilities. Doubtless the actual choices made will fall somewhere in between. We hope, however, that this discussion outlines the various major factors which should influence our decisions. This summary has also been extremely simplified in that the world's non-industrialised nations have been treated as a single entity. In reality there are vastly different factors involved in the industrialisation of such diverse regions as North America, South Africa, and China which must be taken into account. Detailed reports on each region of the world can be found listed in the index to the conference proceedings.

TEXT ENDS

END OF FILE