Brief History of Tripartite Alliance Earth
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair […]"
World Review: 1981
The year 1981 is identified by historians as the last year of normality prior to the Third World War. To most contemporaries, 1981 was simply an ordinary year. True, some unfortunate countries and regions -- the United States in North America, the Siberian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the People's Republic of China in Eurasia, all Southeast Asia apart from Thailand -- failed to participate in the general prosperity of the quarantes glorieuses, and suffered from political ideologies that made it unlikely that they ever would join the League of Nations. For the citizens of the League of Nations' member-states, the turmoil of such isolated areas of the world simply did not matter next to the rapid progress enjoyed by their allies.
The countries of Europe and the Mediterranean basin lay, unquestionably, at the heart of the League of Nations, hence, at the centre of the global economy and international relations. The European Confederation was far and away the single dominant power in this region, inasmuch as the Confederation included (by 1981) every state in Europe save Iceland along with the North African republics of Libya and Algeria. Egypt ranked a distant second after the European Confederation and was quite dependent upon its numerous economic, cultural, and political ties, but nonetheless was rightly seen in the eyes of the Islamic world as the leading Islamic state owing to its substantial influence over the Levant and the wider Arab world. The region of Europe and the Mediterranean possessed a nascent unity provided by a cosmopolitan Francophone culture: Europe's téléromans and nouveau chanson, the popularity of European (and Egyptian) philosophies and political systems, the spread of regional television, radio, and Euronet networks worldwide -- all served as proof of this region's continued prominence worldwide. At the same time, Europe and Egypt both found themselves exposed to new influences, not least of which were the thriving Hispanophone and Lusophone popular cultures of the Southern Hemisphere and Japanese popular culture.
In 1981, the economies of the European Confederation and the Mediterranean basin states thrived. The leading countries -- in northern, central, and western Europe -- easily ranked alongside such prosperous Southern Hemispheric countries as Argentina and Australia. Outside these regions (Europe's so-called "core") the dominant economic trend was convergence, that is, accelerated economic growth in the poorer countries (in North Africa, the Levant, and southeastern and eastern Europe) and the eventual region-wide convergence of living standards and per capita output. In the decade of the 1970's, Spain, Portugal, Poland, and the Baltic States largely or entirely completed their convergences with Europe's core; in the 1980's countries such as Algeria, Romania, Greece, Ireland, and Egypt seemed to ready to complete their particular convergences. In all these countries save Syria, political democracy and social pluralism were accepted facts of life; national, supranational, and League regulations and treaties regarding political and civil rights were scrupulously maintained, and the European Confederation and its member-states led the world in pioneering new rights for groups as diverse as women, immigrants, and non-heterosexuals. Liberal and prosperous and becoming steadily more so, Europeans and Mediterraneans were quite content with their lot, fearing only that change might come too fast.
The continent of South America ranked just behind Europe as a prosperous and peaceful area. Indeed, in many respects South America ranked as the most prosperous region of the world -- though South America remained relatively underpopulated, denizens of the mature First World countries of Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay enjoyed some of the highest living standards in the world, while Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela each enjoyed roaring economic growth. Observers felt strongly that at long last, South America was emerging as a major power, perhaps best symbolized by the development of Spanish and Portuguese as important world languages over the previous generation. Argentina, in particular, enjoyed tremendous prestige as by far the most important Hispanophone country in the world, while Brazil's development into a technologically-sophisticated and prosperous Great Power was symbolized by the success of the space probe PLD-4 in exploring the outer Solar System. The poorer Andean countries continued their slow modernization, though this process was slowed down by the necessity of trying to prepare traditional cultures and languages -- Quechua, Aymará, Guaraní -- for the furor of modernity.
The South American Community was universally recognized as a viable entity, even if its member-states were as yet unprepared to pool their sovereignty like the European Confederation. South American institutions were quite able to handle a wide gamut of issues, from relations with Africa and the construction of a common defense against the United States to maintaining the continental customs union and assuaging the concerns of the smaller and poorer member-states as to potential hegemony by the ABC powers. The main problem facing the South American Community -- apart from the growing instability of the United States, of course -- was the continuing economic gap between the Andean and Caribbean countries on the one hand, and the Southern Cone with Venezuela on the other. Rich countries resented the economic aid given to their poorer allies and the flow of emigrants to their countries, while poorer countries accused their richer neighbours of a condescension that bordered upon racism. Even this problem, though, was being effaced by the prosperity of the South American economy; although the Venezuelan economic boom was atypical in that it was partly driven by American refugee capital and technologies, the entire continent prospered to one degree or another. Under the leadership of a Brazil whose cultural influence -- in music, in literature, in television -- showed every signs of eventually surpassing French influence, the future for the South American Community, its member-states, and its peoples seemed secure.
Africa was far from well-off in 1981: Population growth remained high while living standards remained low, and traditional cultures risked destruction in many regions without any viable replacements. Still, in many parts of the continent some countries did make significant progress in improving living standards and establishing a democratic political culture. South Africa, in particular, made so much progress that prognosticators seriously expected that country to develop a First World economy by the beginning of the 21st century; other countries and unions like West Africa, Angola, Yorubaland, and the East African Community, which started at far lower levels than South Africa, achieved no less spectacular success through adoption of the Indian development model. Some areas -- most notoriously vast and unruly Congo -- remained trapped in a self-perpetuating cycle of poverty, tyranny, and militarization, but by and large the African situation was hopeful: Sustained improvement, to the observers of 1981, seemed entirely possible.
The peoples of the Middle East lacked this confidence, in large part because Middle Easterners failed to emulate the successful modernization of Egypt. To be sure, almost all of the region's countries enjoyed some degree of prosperity thanks to the Middle East's wealth in oil and natural gas; in the smaller states of Kuwait, Dhahran, Bahrain, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, profits were such that the native populations of the region enjoyed First World living standards. Even in these favoured states, though, prosperity was worryingly overcentrated upon the export of a single class of products, while political and social structures were far from being as pluralistic and modern as those of Egypt; in almost all of these smaller countries, in fact, native populations were far outnumbered by populations of immigrants attracted by local prosperity but denied political and civil rights. Iraq's oil proceeds were not enough to placate a majority Shi'ite population restive under the rule of a Sunni Hashemite king, and Iraqis suffered despotic rule. Iran was alone in developing a viable (if Second World) industrial economy, while Iranian nationalists and the Pahlavi royal government alike could dream of Iran emerging as the equal of Egypt; the shocks of over-rapid modernization and the brutality of the Iranian government, however, made it unlikely that the Iranian regime could possibly survive without massive reforms. The Middle East was far too an important a region to the outside world for it to fall into chaos or be overrun by foreign invaders; it was also far too complex a region for anyone to hope to manage its numerous problems.
The region of South and Southeast Asia was troubled by the same problems of economic underdevelopment, political tyranny and instability, and foreign interventions that afflicted the Middle East save in more intense form. The Republic of India was the only country in this region that could claim a degree of power -- not only did Indians enjoy, by and large, some of the highest rates of social and economic development enjoyed by any Third World population, but the rapid growth of the Indian diaspora and Indian economy along with India's growing military prowess gave India the potential of evolving into one of the newest Great Powers. Indian democracy, however, was strained by the military tensions with Pakistan and China, and by the anti-Muslim sentiments of the Hindu populations of north India, as well as by the growth of local regionalisms in outlying states (Maharashtra, Tamilnad, Kerala, Karnataka, Punjab). Bengal and Thailand imitated the Indian development model as much as possible but suffered from political systems prone to military intervention as well as a hostile international environment, while Pakistan was still recovering from its devastating civil war of 1976-8 and outlying provinces were straining to overthrow the Punjabi hegemony. The small states of the Himalayas remained firmly in the Indian orbit for fear for Chinese intervention, as did (to an extent) India and Thailand. In most of Southeast Asia, dysfunctional economies were combined with political systems that encouraged Sinophobic bigotry and rampant armament, exemplified by Indonesia's shocking emergence as a nuclear power with United States aid, and united under the Manila Pact these countries drifted slowly towards confrontation with China.
The situation in the Soviet Union and China was highly variable. The Soviet Union remained riven by its post-civil war regionalism; thus, while Ukraine imitated Europe as much as possible, the other European soviet republics (including Russia) laboured under illiberal political and economic systems and exported their surplus natural resources and people to Ukraine and Europe in order to subsidize Siberia, which managed to combine an immensely expensive military buildup with unrelenting oppression of its subject population. The nomads of the Republic of Mongolia were mostly left alone by their country's Communist administration, though they were subjected to efforts at collectivization. The People's Republic of China was an Orwellian nightmare, run by the fanatic Lin Biao and regimented through terror into a single "nation-body," prepared to sacrifice millions of live in confrontations with foreign imperialisms even as the Chinese economy continued its collapse.
Develoments in the Asian mainland necessarily worried East Asia -- that is, Japan and Korea. Both countries maintained strong military forces in order to defend against any possible Sino-Siberian threat, though not necessarily with each other owing to historical ill-will; strategic concerns and the strong desire of the Southern Hemispheric and European member-states of the League of Nations to preserve the indepenence of both countries ensured the firm integration of Korea and Japan into League structures. At long last, Japan finally ranked as a prosperous First World nation with living standards on par with those of Europe or Brazil and a technological capacity second to none, and the burgeoning Japanese consumerism coincided with no small degree of liberalization. Much to the dismay of nationalists, Korea remained much the smaller and poorer of the two East Asian countries, but the Korean economy continued its spectacular economic growth into the early 1980's -- in 1981, the Korean GDP grew by an estimated 9.5%, thanks in large part to exports of inexpensive manufactured goods, automobiles, and consumer electronics to First World markets. As Korea rapidly evolved into a First World nation-state, Koreans of all stripes -- Buddhist, Confucian, or Christian, radical or reactionary, northern or southern -- remained united behind their ancient nation's new goals of prosperity, unity, and prestige.
Events in North America were dominated by the collapse of the United States into near-anarchy. As Mexicans and Canadians watched with no small amount of fear, the United States after the assassination of President Nixon moved towards a full-fledged police state hindered only by the open armed defiance of some states and population. Events in Central America further disturbed North Americans, as Yucatecans continued their advance into Guatemala in the name of liberating their oppressed Mayan brethren and the fragile democracies of the region collapsed into pro-Changist military regimes. Canada, at least, felt moderately secure thanks to its Government of National Unity and historic European interest; as the rest of the continent was torn apart by war and civil strife, Mexico became acutely aware of its geographic isolation far from any possible allies. More than on any other continent, North American affairs were driven by fear and paranoia.
Only the region of the South Pacific was truly settled and peaceful. As always, prosperous and immensely tolerant Australia was the dominant state in the region though it took care to maintain a decidedly benevolent foreign policy towards Australia's weaker neighbours, often colonized by Australia. The East Indies was in turmoil thanks to the growth of ultranationalism in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, while Papua and the insular states of Melanesia were still trying to construct viable state and economic structures on a tribal basis. Though Fiji's population remained divided between an Indian majority and a Melanesian minority, Fiji as a whole remained a functioning democratic society and a rapidly modernizing society. All of the states and peoples of this region, however, recognized that the South Pacific Confederation -- still dominated by Nouveau-Dauphiné's wealth and sophistication but increasingly influenced by the confederation's smaller members -- was the closest thing to paradise that could be found on this world. Indeed, as fears of war developed among the peoples of the Northern Hemisphere, a noticeable drift of people -- "travellers," or "tourists" -- towards the peaceful green hills of Nouveau-Dauphiné occurred.
Following events would end this relatively peaceful and prosperous period in Tripartite Alliance Earth's history.