Latvia as a Cauldron: 1950-2000

More than any country of Scandinavia or any one of the modern Baltic States, Latvia is pluriethnic. For most of Latvian history, non-Latvian communities were concentrated in the city of Rîga, the capital and largest city of Latvia. Rîga had been the second-largest port of Tsarist Russia after St. Petersburg, and its commercial importance had attracted large numbers of Germans, Russians, and Jews. Although there were small minorities of Germans in the provinces of Curonia (in the west), Livonia (in the north), and Zemgale (in the centre), the second-largest non-Latvian community was to be found in the southeastern province of Latgale around the city of Daugavpils. Latgale's proximity to Lithuania and Russia was reflected by the presence of large Polish, Russian, Lithuanian, and Jewish communities, while even Latgale's ethnic Latvians were Catholic, as opposed to the Protestant Lutheranism of Latvians elsewhere.

Latvia's pluriethnicity, however, did not hinder the establishment of an independent Latvian state despite the emigration of many Baltic Germans following independence. In the 1920's, tens of thousands of ethnic Russians immigrated to Latvia, particularly to Rîga, in their flight from new Communist Russia. There, they reinforced a vibrant Russian cultural community coexisting alongside a Latvian majority. The general trend, though, particularly in the 1930's, was for the assimilation of non-Latvians -- particularly Jews, but also including Latgale Lithuanians -- into the Latvian nation. By 1939, 77% of Latvian residents considered themselves to be ethnically Latvian.

The Second World War changed that. Following the conquest of Latvia, the country's Jews were promptly subjected to campaigns of extermination, and plans were made to eventually exterminate the Poles, and Catholic Latvians of Latgale. (Latvian Protestants were to be converted into a class of slave labourers.) The end of Nazi domination led to further population shifts, as the Soviet invasion of Latvia in late 1944 precipitated a mass exodus of terrified Latvians -- particularly ethnic Latvians and the non-Communist Russians of Rîga -- to Scandinavia. Including the post-war purges, almost one-quarter of the Latvian population died as a result of the Second World War.

The 1950 census suggested that as of that year, an unprecedented 85% of the Latvian population were ethnic Latvians. Gone were the Germans and Jews of Latvia; the main minority groups in post-Second World War Latvia were now Russians and Lithuanians. In the provinces of Curonia and Livonia, a combined population of 850 thousand residents included only 50 thousand non-ethnic Latvians. This entailed, however, a high concentration of non-Latvians in Rîga-Zemgale and Latgale -- non-ethnic Latvians amounted to one-third of the 300 thousand Rîgans, and to one-third of the Latgalian population of 300 thousand. Although there were proportionally fewer non-Latvians in Latvia than there were Russians in rump Karelia, or even Poles in Lithuania, their high concentration in Rîga made them disproportionately visible.

Before the Second World War, Latvia like Estonia had mostly completed its demographic transition. The Latvian population was stable, with low death and birth rates; indeed, fertility rates were below replacement level and would have caused population decline even without the Second World War. However, the rapid industrialization of Latvia under Soviet auspices, and the development of Rîga as the main Soviet port on the Baltic, created a pressing need for labour. The largest source of labour would have been the Soviet Union, but the Communist government of Latvia rightly feared that if it ever allowed large numbers of Soviet immigrants into Latvia Latvian independence might be compromised. In 1951, the Latvian government negotiated an accord on migration with Lithuania, which differed from its northern neighbour in that its population was still growing fairly rapidly, creating problems of substantial unemployment and underemployment. In the course of the 1950's, the Latvian government allowed three hundred thousand Lithuanians to immigrate into Latvia, most settling either in Rîga's outskirts or in the new agricultural estates of Latgale. Soviet pressure in the same time period led to the immigration of another hundred thousand Soviets, overwhelmingly Russian. In order to accommodate this massive influx, vast apartment complexes were built on the outskirts of Rîga and Daugavpils to accommodate the massive population surge. All of the immigrants were given Latvian citizenship as a matter of course.

When the Soviet Union withdrew from Latvia and restored Latvia's full independence in 1960, the composition of the Latvian population had changed sharply. The ethnic Latvian population remained stable, at roughly 1.3 million, although urbanization had led many ethnic Latvians to settle in Rîga. At the same time, though, the total Latvian population was 2.0 million. In the space of a decade, the non-ethnic Latvian population of Latvia had more than doubled to 700 thousand, and the ethnic Latvian proportion of the Latvian population had declined to just 70%. There were relatively few immigrants in Livonia, Zemgale and Curonia -- out of a combined population of 950 thousand, only 150 thousand or one-sixth of the population, was made of non-ethnic Latvians. In Rîga, though, 350 thousand of that city's 650 thousand inhabitants in Rîga were ethnic Latvian, while only one-half of the Latgalian population of 400 thousand people were ethnically Latvian. This proportionally large population of immigrants created huge problems for the post-Communist Latvian government: How would they be dealt with? Deporting them was obviously not a viable solution -- not only would the mechanics have been near-impossible, but a deportation would alienate the European Confederation and cause conflicts with Latvia's neighbours. Expecting a voluntary departure of the immigrants was also deemed unlikely, since the Lithuanian and Soviet immigrants would be unlikely to leave comparatively rich Latvia for their poor homelands. So, it was eventually decided to try to assimilate the immigrants into Latvian society.

By far the largest non-ethnic Latvian populations in Latvia were the 350 thousand Lithuanians and the 200 thousand Russians; small communities of Poles, Belarusians, and Jews made up most of the remainder. Reports commissioned by the Latvian government indicated that the Lithuanians could be assimilated, given time. Most of the ethnic Lithuanians resident in Latvia fit into the lower socioeconomic ranks of Latvian society, whether as farm workers in Latgale or as members of the Rîgan working class, while the Lithuanian language was quite similar to Latvian. Given time, sociologists argued that the Lithuanian immigrants would become upwardly mobile in the wider Latvian society. A policy of Latvian-medium education for children, and intensive training in the Latvian language for adults could serve to hasten a switch to Latvian. The Russians of Latvia, though, were considered likely to be less prone, as that community was disproportionately well-educated and urbanized, while possessing a vibrant community life. The other smaller minorities were expected to assimilate relatively quickly. The prospect of future immigration into Latvia -- from southern Europe, from North Africa, perhaps even from Russia -- was considered but then rejected, as sociologists predicted that future emigrants from those regions would be more likely to go to richer and less competitive western Europe or Sweden. For the next thirty years, this prediction would prove accurate.

Throughout the 1960's and 1970's, as Latvia successfully completed its economic modernization, the immigrants slowly began to assimilate into Latvian-speaking society. The passage of various laws throughout the 1960's seeking to encourage assimilation -- the establishment of Latvian as the only language of instruction used in the public education system after 1970, the subsidization of Latvian-language print and electronic media, and the establishment of adult training programs in Latvian for adult immigrants, the creation of an autonomous Latvian Orthodox Church and Latvian Catholic Church to serve as instruments of assimilation -- increased the pressure on non-Latvians for assimilation in conformance with European Confederation and League regulations. At the same time, Latvia's rapid economic development encouraged extensive internal migration, as workers -- a large number of whom were non-Latvians, mainly Lithuanians -- left Rîga for jobs in adjoining provinces. This in-migration into the overwhelmingly Latvian provinces by ethnic Lithuanians further encouraged the process of assimilation. Even in the heterogenous province of Latgale, indirect pressure by the Catholic Church upon non-Latvian Catholics to assimilate and a high rate of intermarriage had begun to create a dominant population of Latvian-speaking Catholics of diverse ethnic origins in Latgale.

The 1980 Latvian census revealed the Latvian population to have grown only slightly over the past two decades, from 2.0 million to 2.1 million. Of the total population, 1.4 million professed their first language to be Latvian, while 400 thousand identified their first language as Lithuanian, and another 200 thousand identified their first language as Russian. Still, out of the 750 thousand Rîgans, 450 thousand ethnic Latvians and another hundred thousand ethnic Lithuanians -- one-third of the non-Latvian population of Rîga -- identified their main language as Latvian. The same process of assimilation was, if anything, more pronounced in the overwhelmingly Latvian provinces of Livonia , Zemgale, and Curonia: Out of a combined population of one million, 800 thousand ethnic Latvians and 100 thousand non-ethnic Latvians identified their main language as Latvian. Even in Latgale, out of a total population of almost 400 thousand two-thirds identified their main language as Latvian. Of the remaining 450 thousand people whose main language was not Latvian, three-quarters professed reasonable fluency in the Latvian language. To a substantial degree, the non-ethnic Latvian population of Latvia had already been assimilated, with few reasons to suspect that this assimilation would not be continued.

The Third World War did not change the dynamics behind the assimilation of immigrants. If anything, owing to the extreme economic disruption caused by the war and the consequent internal migrations, the assimilation of immigrants was accelerated. Though fewer than a hundred thousand Latvian residents died as a result of the war, thanks to effective food-distribution and medical systems, Latvia was almost overwhelmed by the almost two million Russian refugees who fled across the border in the month after the War's terminal exchanges. Although the refugees had been resettled either in Russia or in western Europe by the end of 1983, that experience encouraged anti-immigrant hostility. As a result, immigrants didn't enter Latvia in any number for another decade.

Like most of the rest of northern Europe, as Latvia's economic recovery transformed itself into an economic boom in the mid-1990's, Latvia experienced a baby boom. For the first time in a generation, fertility rates rose above replacement levels, to 2.3 children born per women. At the same time, the aging adult population and the need for a larger workforce created a need for the immigration of gastarbeitar. Accordingly, beginning in 1993 the Latvian government initiated a program of recruiting immigrants for work in the service sector of the Latvian economy. By the end of 2000, more than one hundred thousand people -- most from the Indian states of Kerala and Tamilnad -- had arrived in Latvia.

As of 2000, Latvia had a total population of some 2.1 million. Of these, 1.4 million claimed Latvian as their mother tongue, while another half-million claimed Latvian as their main language. For the first time ever, an overwhelming majority of the Latvian population -- 90% of the total -- claim Latvian as their main language. Of the 950 thousand Rîgans and Zemgalians, 750 thousand claim Latvian as their main language; out of the 350 thousand Latgalians as many as 300 thousand use Latvian in public life; out of the 900 thousand inhabitants of Livonia and Curonia there are 800 thousand people for whom Latvian as their language of choice. Even the Russians of Rîga are beginning to succumb, as the Latvian-speaking majority of their city continually increases and Russian parents seek to enroll their children in the Latvian-medium public school system. The expected immigration of as many as 1.3 million ethnic Latvians from the Soviet Union of Deccan Traps Earth is expected to further increase this Latvian-speaking majority, while accelerating Latvian population growth. For the first time, it is not impossible to imagine a Latvia as populous as Finland or Norway, or even Denmark.

At the same time, though, the bonds of the Latvian language have come to encompass a great deal of cultural diversity. For instance, there are now more practising Latvian-speaking Catholics than Latvian-speaking Protestants in this historically Protestant country, while the Latvian Orthodox Church is consolidating its position as the third major faith of the country. The more recent waves of immigrants are also beginning to meld into Latvian society, bringing their own distinctive religion and social customs with them. More than any other country in the European Confederation -- even more than in France -- Latvia has succeeded in combining its national heritage with remarkable openness on the wider world.

The arrival, to September of 2001, of 1.1 million Latvian and Latvian-related refugees from the glaciated Soviet Union of Deccan Traps Earth, has added an entirely new element to the Latvian cauldron. Arrival censuses show that barely two-thirds of these immigrants are ethnic Latvians, in the sense of being descendants of from citizens of the interwar Latvian republic who are still fluent in the Latvian language and Latvian customs. The remaining 400 thousand individuals are non-Latvian, whether non-Latvian (mainly East Slavic) relatives of ethnic Latvians or assimilated Russophone Latvians. This vast influx has created tremendous pressures in Latvia, not least of which is the trebling of Latvia's unemployment rate and a vast construction program of ville neuves outside Latvia's established major cities. Early signs suggest, however, that the effectiveness of Latvia's assimilation policies is not threatened by this immigration: the ethnic Latvian immigrants are generally possessed of a strong national identity, and the non-Latvian immigrants are at least vaguely familiar with Latvian language and culture. The Latvian cauldron still works.