Under the guidance of NASA, the first manned expedition to Mars lands safely on the planet's surface. Sponsors of the mission include the United States, Russia, Japan, and the European Union. Transit between Earth and Mars takes 138 days. The six man crew touches down on Mars on June 19, 2019.
After spending 600 days on the planet's surface, the first Mars mission crew returns to Martian orbit. Then, using the ERV (Earth Return Vehicle), the crew travels back to Earth, finally landing on July 3, 2021. A second crew launches for Mars later that year.
The second Martian manned expedition lands on Mars at the beginning of the year.
In September, the second Martian crew boards the ERV for their long trip home. As the second crew heads toward Earth, the European Union and Japan both unexpectedly announce they will pull out of the third Mars Mission. They give no reason for their decision at the time. Later, it becomes known that each of them did so to focus on building Lunar Bases.
The remaining Mars mission sponsors forge ahead with their plans. They are able to find other governments to help finance the third mission.
After 612 days on Mars, the second crew returns to Earth. The remaining sponsors proceed with the third manned mission to Mars.
The third Martian crew launches. Extra equipment has been launched ahead of them to help extend their stay to at least 800 days. Their goal will be to explore major portions of the planet surface and research the feasibility of Martian terraforming (creating an Earth-like environment on the planet).
Nearly two months into transit between Earth and Mars, the third crew's command module, the Demeter, is struck by meteoroids. The life support system suffers irreparable damage. The entire six person crew perishes three days later. This loss, combined with other events in the years to come, will postpone further missions to Mars for over a quarter of a century.
Japan becomes the first nation to have a fully operational He-3 Fusion Reactor. Unlike other attempts at fusion reactors, which use only hydrogen isotopes, the Osaka University-designed reactor uses helium-3. And, when fused with deuterium (heavy hydrogen), the helium-3 yields more useful energy than the other methods. The DHe3 reactor also produces much less radiation and waste, making it safe for widespread use. Though helium-3 is rare on Earth, it is abundant on the Moon.
The European Union has a Lunar Mission crew on standby. With the announcement of the Osaka Reactor, the EU mission launches. Five months later, the Joint European Torus station is online. Japan soon launches a Lunar Mission as well. In the coming years, many other countries also will launch Lunar Missions, all trying to claim a piece of the now valuable real estate on the Moon. Each of these missions will have the same purpose: to build a facility to extract the helium-3 from the lunar regolith (the surface soil of the Moon).
Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) propose a new Moon Agreement based on the previous Moon Agreement of 1979, and the Antarctic Treaty of 1959. Neither the EU, Japan, China, Russia, or the United States will ratify this agreement, however.
As retribution, the same OPEC members decide to collaborate on an accelerated space program of their own.
The European Union helium-3 extraction facility is situated on the near-side of the Moon where scientists have predicted high concentrations of the substance. Once the EU begins shipping helium-3 from this facility back to Earth, they will initiate construction of a second extraction site. The Japanese facility will be completed soon after the first EU facility. Chinese and American facilities are under construction as well.
Many corporations, as well as other governments, begin pressing for property rights on the Moon. Members of the EU decide the best response is to form an economic bloc to coordinate their ventures in Earth orbit and on the lunar surface. With this effort, the Unified European Economy is born. By allowing open membership to all European countries and European international companies, the UEE becomes a major force off-planet.
UEE founders base their organization on the European Union (1998), itself based on the European Economic Community (1957). UEE member nations try to maintain peaceful relations within the group by using the threat of expulsion from the organization as a deterrent to would-be aggressors. Economic exclusion manages to keep most countries in line, but a few Balkan nations are expelled in less than five years.
Comprised of Mexico, the United States, and Canada, the UNAE is founded in response to the creation of the UEE. The UNAE is initially based on the NAFTA protocols of the 1990s. The organization soon expands to include other select American nations, but no country contributes as much to the UNAE as its three founding members. Most of the production facilities owned by the UNAE are constructed by the United States, indicating that this economic consolidation is primarily a means to protect interests planetside.
By the time the OPEC crew reaches the moon in 2035 and begins construction of a He-3 extraction facility, most of the lunar surface has been unofficially claimed by one of the moon's current residents. OPEC demands possession of territory occupied by EU facilities. The land dispute is brought before the United Nations.
The Lunar War, as it becomes known, is a misnomer. Very little fighting actually occurs on the Moon. But the conflict does have its origins on the lunar surface. In early 2036, after the UN has failed to settle the lunar land disputes between OPEC and the UEE, the UEE launches a security crew to the Moon to protect their interests. Rumors have surfaced that the OPEC crews are armed.
After a terse verbal exchange between a UEE extraction crew and an Arab construction crew, fighting breaks out. Although each side blames the other for the event, the result is the same: three members of the UEE and the entire OPEC crew die.
In retaliation, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran launch air strikes on cities in the UEE, initially using conventional explosive weapons. The UEE respond in kind. The UNAE, unwilling to face-off with the UEE, pulls all military support from Saudi Arabia and its neighboring countries. Desperate now, the Middle Eastern nations target biological weapons on major European cities. Although most missiles are destroyed before reentry, one does slip through the UEE's orbital defenses, hitting Paris. Over 100,000 people perish in the initial viral outbreak.
Fearing further escalation of the conflict, the UNAE and Japan reluctantly join with the UEE. This alliance, bolstered by intelligence provided by the UNAE, cripples the missile capabilities of OPEC. But Saudia Arabia, Iran and many of the other smaller nations still persevere. From mid-2037, through most of 2038, battles rage in and around the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. Casualties rise beyond 2 million. It is not until UEE forces invade Tehran, then target Riyadh and Mecca, that the OPEC alliance finally surrenders.
In order to prevent new land disputes on the Moon, all lunar property holders agree to sign the Treaty of 2039. The agreement prohibits expansion of operations beyond the boundaries laid down before the Lunar War. None of the OPEC countries that participated in the Lunar War can establish a permanent presence on the Moon.
The Asian Economic Bloc, or AEB, is formed in March of 2040, confounding most mainstream analysts who had discounted the possibility of cooperation between the nations involved. The consolidation of efforts on Earth and on the Moon by China, India, Japan, the Little Dragons of southeast Asia and Indonesia, and several of the former Soviet Republics, comes as a mighty blow to the UEE and UNAE. With vastly greater natural and human resources, the AEB wields superior power over the other two major economic blocs.
The AEB grants their member countries a good deal of internal self-governance, but all international relations are handled through the AEB. Member nations are expected to contribute to the AEB as best they can. If a country does not meet expectations, they are penalized or even expelled. This fosters a sense of competition between the members, but rarely any serious hostility. The strength of the coalition helps ensure the AEB will maintain political, economic and social dominance for decades to come.
The first orbital Earth colony becomes operational in June, 2042. It is constructed at the 3rd LaGrange Point in Earth orbit. The UNAE, the sponsors of the project, see this as a significant step toward coping with crisis level overpopulation on the planet's surface.
This first colony is designed by Joseph Haldeman, then an employee of NASA. Haldeman goes on to found Haldeman Industries, a company later renowned for creating space stations.
The UNAE launches the first manned mission to Mars in over a quarter of a century. By dubbing it the Renaissance Mission, the UNAE hopes to signal the rebirth of human travel to Mars, as well as the economic and spiritual renewal of the nations in their bloc.
Using fusion-powered rockets, the transit between Earth and Mars takes only 60 days, rather than the 130- to 180-day Hohmann transfer orbit necessary only twenty-six years before. The twelve person crew consists of scientists from key UNAE companies. Their two-year mission focuses on cataloging the planet's resources and preparing Mars for a UNAE colony.
Once the Renaissance Crew returns to Earth, the UNAE begins the rigorous planning of the new Martian Colony. They establish a terraforming protocol to be initiated once key segments of the colonization strategy are in place.
Tanaka Heavy Industries, a conglomerate of Asian industrial giants, has been a leader in developing fusion reactors since the first days of the AEB. With the cooperation of Osaka University, Tanaka finally designs a reactor efficient enough both in power and in mass to propel one of their space-planes. With the superiority of this advance as a method for escaping a planet's gravity, the fusion powered space-plane virtually negates the need for space elevators. Large scale mining of planets and asteroids is now seen as only a few years away.
A harsh economic downturn forces the UNAE to delay the launch of their Martian colonists until 2069. That year, one hundred colonists arrive on Mars to establish a habitat site at Ares Vallis. Priorities include building additional habitats to allow more specialists to join the effort on Mars.
The UNAE has a great many hopes pinned on the success of their Martian colonies. They want to replenish their dwindling natural resources, find a permanent solution to their population explosion, and regain the prestige lost by North America in the previous century.
Analysts of the time label the Ares Colony an unwise investment. They feel the initial cost is too high, and that the UNAE's resources would be better applied toward gaining influence on Earth.
Orbital and asteroid mining is established as a parallel venture to the Ares Colony, but soon the two grow in synergy. Mars provides a convenient local market for the metals, carbon and volatiles mined from the Belt and also serves as a nearby shipyard. As the mining activity increases, small outpost colonies are formed by independent miners throughout the Belt.
The United Nations, founded in 1945, is disbanded in 2072. The poor performance of the organization, as evidenced by its handling of the Lunar War, and its inability to effectively sanction the major economic blocs, renders the UN obsolete in the eyes of most world leaders.
In five years, the number of UNAE colonists living in the network of habitats in the Ares Colony grows to nearly five thousand. The completion of two domed colonies over the next year will allow the population to swell to 25,000. With the announcement of the new dome construction, many smaller nations sign on to the fledgling colony. People volunteer from all areas of life - from once doubting scientists to poverty stricken laborers from Central and South America. Because the construction of these new colonies will be automated with advanced robotics, however, very few people are accepted for the journey right away. The majority of those who want to live in the UNAE's Martian colonies will have to wait for the full-scale terraforming effort.
There are alternatives, however. Other colonies begin springing up all over Mars. With the decreasing cost of travel between Earth and Mars, some nations not affiliated with the three large economic blocs, including the former OPEC countries, establish colonies of their own. Lacking the advanced robotics of the Ares Colony, these unregulated colonies will evolve on pure determination. Unfortunately, human error and miscalculation will cost the lives of many of these rugged pioneers.
Efforts to tame the Martian frontier revitalize a practice in near dormancy for 400 years. Indentured servitude, in which a company pays for a colonist's transport in return for several years' service, proves to be an effective means to exploit something most poor nations have in abundance: unemployed workers. Some Martian colonies even make back door deals with the most desperate countries to ship segments of their populations to Mars for work in construction, mining, and service positions. By taking advantage of the antiquated labor laws of these poor nations, the unregulated colonies subject the indentured servants to dangerous situations with few of the amenities enjoyed by laborers from the three major economic blocs.
Soon, the unregulated colonies begin to undercut the Ares Colony, which the UNAE has expected not to turn a profit for another ten years. The financial hit causes the North American bloc to fall even further behind its rivals. Ironically, however, the stress on the UNAE nations has the effect of encouraging emigration of their people to Mars in the decades which follow.
With the completion the two dome colonies, Apsu and Tiamat, the population of UNAE colonists swells. Most of the new arrivals on Mars will be involved with terraforming operations.
Engineers and their crews start construction of a giant mirror to orbit over the South Polar region of Mars. Once in place, the mirror will raise the polar temperature by about 5 degrees. This will melt the polar ice caps, releasing carbon dioxide trapped in the caps, as well as in the Martian permafrost. The carbon dioxide is predicted to create a greenhouse effect which will continually raise both the temperature and the pressure in the Martian atmosphere - the first goals of Martian terraforming.